IRCC’s Doors Still Ajar: Diab’s Weak Exit Fix
Tackling Student Havoc, Weak Asylum Curbs, and Mixed Signals on New Arrivals
Hey, Canada’s Immigration Minister Lena Diab is finally waking up to the exit-tracking void, pushing for a digital system to monitor when temporary residents actually GTFO. With 1.9 million permits—work, study, visitor, expiring in 2026 (after 2.1 million in 2025), she’s admitting IRCC’s current patchwork with CBSA is questionable, no real dashboard for outflows. She’s eyeing U.S./EU-style tools for better enforcement, but no timeline yet—budget asks for 2026. Critics say it’s overdue; without it, overstays could balloon to 500K+, fueling shadows economies and public distrust. Prime Minister Carney wants temps at 5% of pop by 2027, forecasting outflows of 446K yearly. Sounds proactive, but feels like catching up to a runaway train.
The international student mess? It’s a screaming emergency. What started as a tuition bonanza exploded into fraud mills, housing crunches, and students flipping burgers over books. Diab’s team capped permits at 408,000 for 2026, down 7% from 2025’s 437,000—with 155,000 for new arrivals and 253,000 extensions. Approvals cratered: Only 80,000 projected new post-secondary visas in 2025, a 62% drop from 2024. Arrivals plunged 97% in Nov 2025 vs. Dec 2023 peaks. Rents eased 8-10% in cities, but unis are reeling, 60% planning cuts, 50% layoffs. Exemptions for master’s/PhD at public DLIs (no PAL/TAL needed) aim to snag talent, with two-week processing for PhDs. But overall, it’s whiplash: Businesses howl labor gaps, while exploitation festers. Fix this stat, or kiss economic growth goodbye.
On the refugee flip, Diab’s backing a time limit via Bill C-12: No asylum claims after one year in Canada, targeting “forum shopping” by temps like students. Refugees/protected persons slashed to 56,200 in 2026 (down from prior bumps), with private sponsorships dropping 30% to 16,000. She’s floating a “complementary pathway for refugee students” via pilots like EMPP, fast-tracking genuine cases. PR holds at 380,000 yearly. Sounds tough on abuse, but here’s the rub—it’s weak sauce. Critics, including NDP and advocacy groups, slam it as heartless, ignoring real perils that arise post-arrival (e.g., home-country changes). It might spike sham marriages or underground stays, not fix backlogs. Plus, it overlooks how temp policy chaos drives these flips in the first place. Overcorrection without nuance? Recipe for humanitarian fallout.
But seriously, why’s IRCC still green-lighting 155,000 new students in 2026 amid this dumpster fire? Sure, grad exemptions and provincial caps (Ontario gets the lion’s share) chase “high-value” talent, but with approvals tanking (80% Indian apps refused in 2025) and sectors bleeding, it screams inconsistency. Housing’s maxed, services strained—yet we’re dangling spots for economic perks? Is it tuition addiction or half-baked reform? If chaos is the villain, why not zero it out till stability hits? Canada’s student allure is dimming; this half-measure could boomerang.
Diab’s got the tracking itch right, but her asylum tweaks feel flimsy amid student pandemonium. Tighten smartly, not swing wildly—Canada needs balance, not backlash.
