Best Affordability in a Decade! Yeah, Right

$17,572 grocery bills and 51.6% housing burden prove he’s completely detached.

Prime Minister Mark Carney recently claimed that affordability in Canada is the best it has been in over a decade. He said it like everyday life is finally improving for regular folks. The trouble is, fresh numbers from 2026 reports show the opposite for most families, and critics are calling the statement tone deaf.

Housing costs still crush budgets. The mortgage burden for a typical buyer eats up roughly 51.6 percent of household income in many markets. That is far above the safe long term target of 30 percent and well above the 39 percent level seen in 2019. In major cities buyers often need tens of thousands more in annual income just to qualify under the stress test at rates around 6.41 percent.

Food bills deliver an even clearer reality check. According to the Canada Food Price Report 2026, the average family of four will spend $17,571.79 this year on groceries. That is up to $994.63 more than in 2025, with overall food prices rising 4 to 6 percent. Food costs are now 27 percent higher than in 2020. Monthly grocery spending for that family jumped from about $1,336 last year to $1,464 now, adding roughly $128 extra every single month.

Picture these simple data visuals in your head:

• Grocery cost bar chart for a family of four:
  2020 baseline → 2025: $16,577 → 2026: $17,572 (up 27 percent total, plus another 4-6 percent this year)
• Housing bite line: 2019 at 39 percent of income → 2026 at 51.6 percent for typical buyers

Lower income households feel it hardest. They spend over 27 percent of disposable income on food and beverages, compared to just 5 percent for the highest earners. One in four Canadian households is food insecure, and food bank use stays near record levels even among working people. One in three Canadians says they are only $200 away from missing bills.

Add rising gas prices from global tensions and core expenses that keep outpacing wage growth for many. Sure, headline inflation has cooled to around 2 percent, and some shelter costs eased slightly from their worst peaks. Long term after tax incomes rose for certain groups too. But the cumulative hit since 2020 means real purchasing power for average families has taken a beating.

Opposition voices like Pierre Poilievre slammed the comment fast, saying it ignores the grocery aisle math and mortgage stress most people face. Recent polls show over 60 percent of Canadians still rank affordability, especially housing and food, as their top worry.

Carney spent years in global finance before returning to politics. His upbeat take feels like it comes from a different Canada than the one where families juggle that $17,572 food tab or watch half their income vanish on housing. Canadians are not imagining the strain. Until policies seriously boost housing supply, ease grocery pressures, and deliver real relief, claims like this will keep sounding like empty spin disconnected from kitchen table reality.

BACKGROUNDER

Housing Affordability

Under Harper, housing was more affordable for most families. The share of household income needed for mortgage and ownership costs typically ranged from about 39% to 45%. By the end of his term in late 2015, the figure sat around 45%.

In 2026 under Carney, the mortgage burden for a typical buyer has climbed to roughly 51.6% of household income (according to National Bank of Canada Housing Affordability Monitor data from late 2025, with slight recent easing but still far above historical norms). This is well above the 30% threshold many experts consider affordable and significantly worse than Harper-era levels.

Home prices also tell the story. National average home prices rose steadily but gradually under Harper. They exploded in the years after 2015, peaking much higher before some cooling in 2025–2026. Average rents grew slower than wages during much of Harper’s time, while the opposite has been true more recently.

Grocery and Food Costs

Food price increases were more moderate under Harper. Annualized farm and food product price growth averaged around 4.4% during his tenure.

In 2026, the average family of four is projected to spend $17,571.79 on groceries, up to $994.63 more than in 2025 and about 27% higher than five years ago. Food inflation has frequently outpaced general inflation, with Canada sometimes leading the G7 in grocery price growth. Monthly grocery costs for that family now hover around $1,464, adding noticeable pressure compared to earlier decades.

Food insecurity remains high, with one in four households affected and food bank usage near record levels even among working families.

Broader Picture

Real disposable income per capita grew solidly under Harper, often outpacing the United States in relative terms during that period. Household debt burdens were lower, and essential costs (housing + food) consumed a smaller share of paycheques for the average family.

Today under Carney, while headline inflation has cooled, core essentials like housing and groceries continue to eat up a larger portion of income. Many families report feeling squeezed, with polls showing affordability (especially rent, mortgages, and groceries) as the top concern. Critics point out that cumulative price shocks since 2020 have eroded purchasing power more noticeably than during the Harper era.

Bottom Line

By most standard measures, affordability was stronger under Harper. Housing took a smaller bite of income, food costs rose more slowly, and real income gains felt more tangible for middle-class households. In 2026, despite some recent easing in certain markets, key indicators show families facing heavier burdens on housing (51.6% vs ~40% historically) and groceries ($17,572 annual tab for a family of four).

Carney has highlighted long-term income growth and policy efforts to build more housing, but the ground-level data on monthly bills and income shares still shows a tougher environment for many Canadians than what existed a decade ago under Harper.

Affordability is complex and influenced by global factors, interest rates, immigration levels, and supply constraints. Different governments face different challenges, but the numbers reveal a clear shift toward greater strain on household budgets now compared to the Harper years.